Author: Robert Broxup

Thoughts on Risk Analysis

Robert Broxup

There are several ways in which risks can be dealt with, depending on the circumstances and individual or corporate risk appetite.

  • Severity – the consequences of an event taking place
  • Probability – the likelihood of an event taking place
  • Risk = severity x probability – high probability and high severity equate to a high-risk

It is also important to note the difference between Perceived Risk and Actual Risk:

  • Actual risk – quantifiable and based on objective data, for example, according to the Department of Transport, there were 1784 deaths, 25,511 serious injuries and 160,597 casualties of all severities from road traffic accidents in the United Kingdom in 2018. Media coverage was low.
  • Perceived risk – determined by individual perception and influenced by other factors such as news headlines, for example, Dutch aviation consulting firm To70 reported on 534 deaths in 2018 from passenger airline crashes. Almost every aeroplane crash becomes headline news, even in cases where there are no fatalities.

The perceived risk is that it is more dangerous to travel by passenger jet than to travel by car. However, the reverse is true when considering the actual risk. Statistically, it is far more dangerous to travel by car. A similar analysis shows that parachuting is statistically safer than crossing the road, whereas individual perception of the idea of jumping from a plane tells a different story.

The distinction is essential when it comes to managing risk to ensure that actions and investment are proportionate to the risk. Individuals and organisations often need to prioritise risks due to availability of resources, and consequently, investment in a perceived risk over dealing with an actual risk can be catastrophic. The reverse is also true. In cases where perceived risk influences a consumer’s decision to buy, a company can suffer substantial financial losses even if the actual risk is minuscule.

  • Risk Avoidance
  • Risk Mitigation
  • Risk Acceptance
  • Risk Transfer

Risk Avoidance

Risk avoidance is about implementing alternative plans and solutions to circumnavigate the events which carry risk. With no possibility of an event taking place, it doesn’t matter how severe the consequences are because, in the ‘Severity x Probability’ formula, the risk becomes ZERO. It is, of course, possible that implementing alternatives may introduce different risks which need assessment, but that is another story.

Risk Acceptance

Risk acceptance is about accepting that the event will, at some point, take place, and accepting responsibility for the consequences when it does take place. The ‘Severity x Probability’ will help determine the appropriateness of accepting the risk. It is also necessary to consider:

  • The legality of accepting the risk
  • Does the person accepting the risk have the authority to do so?
  • Is the cost of risk mitigation proportionate to risk?
  • Is it sensible to accept the risk?

Businesses accept risks for all sorts of reasons, including:

  • Too expensive compared to the benefit
  • Insufficient finance to mitigate the risk
  • Insufficient human resources or skills to mitigate the risk
  • Mitigating the risk is a lower priority than other risks
  • Plans in place to mitigate risks at a later date

Keeping evidence of risk analysis along with conclusions reached and decisions made is essential.

Risk Mitigation

Risk Mitigation is about:

  • Reducing the probability of an event taking place
  • Reducing the severity of an event when it does take place

The cost of mitigation should be proportionate to the risk of not taking action.

Risk Transfer

Risk Transfer is the reduction of risk by transferring it someone else or to another company:

  • An insurance policy – taking out an insurance policy essentially transfers some of the risks to the insurance company; how much depends on the insurance policy terms and conditions
  • Project Contractual Terms – engaging with 3rd parties to deliver projects or run services often includes terms and conditions of business which transfer risk from one party to another.

Only consider the transfer of risk if the party taking on the risk has the opportunity or means to reasonably reduce the risk, either on an ongoing basis or through adequate evaluation ahead of transferring risk.

Risk Transfer is essentially about paying someone else to take the risk, so it is crucial to make sure that the 3rd party can accept the risk, and for the 3rd party to receive sufficient reward to justify acceptance of the risk.

Wipe Before Selling

Robert Broxup

Before you sell, give away or recycle mobile phones, tablets, desktop computers, laptops or USB drives or other items with data storage such as cameras with memory cards, delete the data. It is, of course, necessary to make sure you have a safe copy of your data or fully operational replacement devices before disposing of your old devices. Consider what is on your device, such as:

  • Browser history
  • Saved passwords
  • Personal financial records
  • Photographs
  • Access to emails and social media accounts
  • Customer data
  • Retained links to licensed software
  • Active logins such as iCloud
  • Links to external storage services such as Dropbox, Google Drive and One Drive

This list is not exhaustive, but what is essential is for you to think about what is on your device. Although gaining access to data on devices depends on the level of security implemented, assume that if someone wants to access it, they will eventually get access; determined by the value of the data and the effort required to gain access. In the wrong hands, the data could be detrimental to personal safety and security. Where devices belong to businesses, the data could compromise the personal safety and security of employees or customers. If you are selling the device, the buyer will expect to be able to use it, so you are unlikely to have any enabled security.

Several years ago, I bought a mobile phone from eBay and found that it still had 100s of personal contacts, numerous text messages that had not been deleted, including some in the outbox waiting to send. My initial thought was that I had purchased a stolen phone, however, upon further investigation and telephone conversations with contacts in the phone, I was able to confirm the sale was genuine, just the seller had not wiped the phone. In this case, the previous owner traded in his phone for a newer model, and I bought the phone from the trader. The eBay listing showed the phone as ‘refurbished’, which didn’t include a factory reset.

Additional steps are often required to delete the data thoroughly. Storage devices work by having an index of files, and the index points to the physical location of where the data is stored. For speed of operations, deleting files often deletes the entry from the index leaving the data intact but no longer visible. If you don’t securely delete the files, someone could recover them.

  • Consider removing the hard disk from desktops and laptops and destroying them rather than attempting to delete the data securely. Industrial shredding services are available that will turn a hard disk into 1000s of small pieces of metal. You could use a hammer to render a hard disk useless. The approach taken should be relative to the value of the data you are trying to destroy.
  • Selling or giving away desktops and laptops without a hard disk is a viable option. New owners can easily purchase replacement drives and have a fully operational system.
  • Restore devices to factory default. For example, Apple iOS has the option in settings to reset the device and remove all data. Windows 10 also has a built-in feature to reset the operating system and destroy all existing data. Reinstalling the operating system from installation media is an available option. These options allow you to sell or give away devices in a state where the new owner can log in as a 1st time user.
  • Utilities such as ‘CCleaner’ have options to securely delete unused space on hard disks and securely delete entries in the index to prevent data from ever being recovered.

They called you, remember!

Robert Broxup

It is a common theme that when you receive a call from your bank or utility providers, for example, telling you that for your data protection they must take you through security so they can identify you. Stop right there! They called you! It is your responsibility to identify them.

Most of these calls come from unknown or blocked numbers. Where you can identify the number, it is often from a pool of numbers which you would most likely not recognise. If they call you, how are you expected to identify them if they refuse to speak with you until you have confirmed your name and given them your date of birth, along with whatever information they require?

  • When someone calls you, you often have no way to verify their identity
  • Fraudsters can use the information provided for identity confirmation to impersonate you

Organisations are good at telling their customers they will never ask for passwords, but they are comfortable asking for all the information needed to have passwords reset. As long as organisations are calling members of the public in this way, fraudsters will be able to mimic that behaviour to steal enough information to act as if they are you.

Degradation of security measures

Robert Broxup

Following the publication of a recent article about Public Wi-Fi and the use of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs),  I have received questions about what is reasonable with websites attempting to block the use of VPNs. A recurring concern was specifically the blocking of VPN access through an unencrypted public Wi-Fi network.

VPNs are an excellent security measure, but because of how VPNs can circumvent geographic restrictions on content, many organisations have contractual requirements to take extra steps to restrict access. The problem is that because key entertainment sites such as the BBC, Netflix and Amazon Prime use VPN blocking, many VPN users who stream movies and television programs need to deactivate their VPN at some point.

Blocking access through a VPN is relatively easy as the services require IP addresses to function and websites can be configured to block traffic to these IP addresses or redirect traffic to a page asking for the VPN to be disabled. There are also other means such as blocking specific network ports. What makes it difficult is that as businesses create new VPN services with different IP addresses, and as identified, are subsequently blocked.

The use of a VPN also prevents content filtering because network traffic is encrypted. In the case of a public Wi-Fi, the service provider would struggle to stop for example the use of peer to peer file sharing to download illegal content, access to pornography in public, or access to extremist materials online. The reality is that because of how some people use VPNs to perform unlawful activities; website owners are continuously introducing countermeasures, and some countries have either banned the use of VPNs or are currently attempting to do so.

Consider how people become conditioned to do things in a certain way and that potentially harmful activity becomes normal, with consequences that are never fully appreciated. As more websites and services ask for VPNs to be disabled to access the content, the more people will get used to the idea that disabling a VPN is the normal thing to do. Consequently, it becomes less effective as a security measure. This behavioural change has already taken place in other areas:

  • Browsers, for example, have the option to disable cookies, but many websites will not function if cookies are disabled. Websites consequently ask for cookies to be enabled, and the measures that are there to add extra privacy are no longer sufficient. Although you can manage cookies within browser settings, for many people, this can be painful, and the path of least resistance is to have cookies enabled and ignore the settings. In short, the way websites use cookies often undermines the browser security measures.
  • Advert blocking components in browsers are another example, and many websites perform checks. If they have, visitors are redirected to a page instructing them to deactivate the advert blocker to view the content. Again, the more this happens, and the more frequently these instructions are followed, the less effective advert blocking becomes, and with many adverts containing malware, the risks of exposure increase.
  • Terms and conditions – most of the time, terms and conditions are so complicated and long-winded that nobody has the time to read them or even care what they include. People have got used to the idea that terms and conditions are accepted by just ticking a box to say they have read them and agree to the terms.
  • Cookie notifications – how websites have implemented cookie notifications is annoying and interrupts the users’ experience of websites. The inevitable outcome is that people will click OK to accept cookies to get rid of the banner or pop-up that is preventing them from reading the content without any consideration or care about cookies.

What would you think if you visited a website and it redirected you to a page that told you that the site has detected that you have ‘ABC XYZ Antivirus’ installed and the site requires you to disable it before displaying content? I would expect people would be sensible enough to leave the site and not follow the instructions.